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Political Analysis Advance Access originally published online on April 5, 2006
Political Analysis 2006 14(4):439-455; doi:10.1093/pan/mpj010
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Splitting the Difference? Causal Inference and Theories of Split-party Delegations

Daniel M. Butler

Department of Political Science, Encina Hall West, Room 100, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305

Matthew J. Butler

Department of Economics, 549 Evans Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 e-mail: butler{at}econ.berkeley.edu

e-mail: daniel_butler{at}stanford.edu (corresponding author)

We provide an introduction to the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and use the technique to evaluate models of sequential Senate elections predicting that the winning party for one Senate seat will receive fewer votes in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946 to 2004, we find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent.


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