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Political Analysis Advance Access originally published online on October 15, 2007
Political Analysis 2008 16(1):21-40; doi:10.1093/pan/mpm029
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© The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models

Muhammet Ali Bas

Department of Government, Harvard University, CGIS N209, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138

Curtis S. Signorino

303 Harkness Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 e-mail: curt.signorino{at}rochester.edu

Robert W. Walker

Department of Political Science, Center for Applied Statistics, Washington University in Saint Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130 e-mail: rww{at}wustl.edu

e-mail: mbas{at}gov.harvard.edu (corresponding author)

We present a simple method for estimating regressions based on recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which can be implemented in most standard statistical packages, involves sequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manner analogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the technique produces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculate consistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicate Leblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial markets and government responses to these attacks.

Authors' note: Our thanks to Kevin Clarke, John Londregan, Jeff Ritter, Ahmer Tarar, and Kuzey Yilmaz for helpful discussions concerning this paper. A previous version was presented at the 2002 Political Methodology Summer Meeting.


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